Still frigid up north

24 Highland Farm Road

24 Highland Farm Road, which started off asking $7.795 million in 2015 dropped today to $4.495. 5+ acres, decent location, 11,000 square feet to clean, heat and maintain. That might be the problem.

Or its failure to sell could be the canary in the coal mine. At least according to this article in Fortune by a (sort of) Stamford money guy, Joshua Steiner, the Greenwich housing market is on the brink of an epic meltdown.

Greenwich’s housing market is in deep trouble. As you can see in the numbers below, there’s a staggering amount of houses sitting on the market. Here’s the breakdown by home price category:

• $3 million to $4 million: 17 months of supply which has risen 38% over the past year

• $4 million to $5 million: 22 months of supply, +35% over the past year

• $5 million to $10 million: 48 months of supply, +108% over the past year

• Greater than $10 million: 128 months of supply, +63% over the past year

To put that last bullet into perspective, at 128 months, that’s almost 13 years of supply. [10.6 years, by my old fashioned math, but never argue with money guys; besides, what difference, now, does it make?]

What we’re witnessing in Greenwich right now is a microcosm of what’s going on more broadly. In other words, luxury housing is equally challenged nationwide. Segmenting home prices broadly into thirds, high-end price growth is the weakest among the three tiers. Year-over-year price growth for the high-end is up just 5% and steadily declining. That’s compared to 7% and 10% for the mid-tier and low-tier categories respectively.

A friend/client of mine passed that along to me this morning: I wished him a happy Thanksgiving, too.