Is Greenwich real estate headed for Hell?

This article in Zero Hedge suggests that it is.Greenwich Home Prices Plunge 17% As Manhattan's Weakness Shifts To The Suburbs

Zero Hedge and the rest of the media love disaster stories, and I’d take this “news” with a large block of salt, but for sure, we’re seeing some huge whacks taken by the ultra-housing market (one notable exception, yet to be reported, is a mega-million sale in the back country, all cash, for a sum only a few million less than the seller paid for it in 2012. Buyer is a Chinese weekender, I hear, looking to move his money away from the kleptocrats in his homeland. That capital flight has mostly focused on Vancouver until now, but that city’s been pretty-much bought up, so perhaps this sale will be a harbinger of a shift in interest eastward, though I suspect it’s a one-off).

Real estate brokers told BBG that the weakness in the NYC market was largely to blame.

"The weakness in New York City has definitely played a role in some of the weakness that we’ve felt here," said David Haffenreffer, brokerage manager of Houlihan Lawrence’s Greenwich office. Sellers who got less than they wanted for their city apartments "are in turn then dialing down their budgets when they get here to look at homes. Or, it’s just flat-out delaying their ability to buy here."

And just as New York led Greenwich on the way down, sellers in Greenwich will be looking to New York City to determine when the market equilibrium has shifted back into the seller's favor.

"As New York City finds its footing, so too will our markets," Haffenreffer said. "We’re just waiting for those indications."

And sellers in the high-end of the market have already largely pulled their inventory off the market, as weakness first surfaced in the market for homes selling for $10 million or more (a trend that some brokers blamed on a shift in tastes away from estates and toward more centrally located homes closer to down town and public transit like the train station).

In a town known for its $10 million-plus estates, most purchases in all of 2018 were for less than $2 million,according to a report by Houlihan Lawrence. There were 335 single-family deals in that price tier, up 4 percent from 2017.

Condos continued to be an appealing option for buyers looking to keep city-style living and amenities even after moving to the tony suburb. Purchases jumped 23 percent in the fourth quarter from a year earlier to 48 deals, Miller Samuel and Douglas Elliman said. The median price was $746,250, down 3.1 percent.

My advice on all this is about the same as stock brokers dish out: don’t panic. If your job requires you to hang out around here, then pick a house and settle in: Greenwich still has great schools and amenities, and it’s a nice place to live. Ten years down the road, we, especially Connecticut, probably won’t look so attractive, but the way things are going, what part of the country will?

It wouldn’t hurt to buy tinned food and load your shotgun, though.