So what's a 4-acre, back country building lot worth — half-a-million?

11 Chateau Ridge, off Porchuck, off Round Hill, 23 acres with four approved building lots, has dropped from $7.250 million to $4.5, and I’m guessing that’s still too high. This parcel is an appendage to the original estate owned by the late founder of Nine West Shoes, Vince Camuto, a 1927 house on four acres at 32 Chateau, which failed to sell for $25 million and was withdrawn from the market this past December. The town appraises 32’s land as worth $1.1 (and the house itself at $16, which is grossly optimistic, in my opinion), and that’s for a developed site. No 11 is raw land and, at least for now, is being sold as a single, four-lot package. No builder in his right mind would commit to taking on that kind of building project north of the Parkway in today’s market, so that pretty much leaves it up to a single homebuilder who’s willing to commit to 23 acres and buy it as a complete parcel.

Which, because that narrows the buyer pool so sharply, could offer an opportunity: markets change, and someday a building lot up here could once again be worth real money. Buy these 23 acres, build the house you want on one of the lots, and keep the other three as a literal land bank. At the right price today: say, $2, maybe even $3.0?, you might well consider yourself a pretty shrewd fella ten years from now.

Or not — life’s a mystery.