And we have shut down a country of 330 million because ...?

Don’t worry, we’re destroying the economy and ruining millions of lives, just to show we care

Nursing home infection and death rates have skewed COVID numbers

Of the 39 states (and Washington D.C.) that are reporting nursing home deaths, 19 states attribute more than half of their coronavirus deaths to the nursing home population.

But, what does that mean? A little context is necessary. How much of our population is made up of nursing home residents? “There are about 1.4 to 1.5 million people living in nursing homes,” according to Dr. Tanya Gure, section chief of geriatrics and associate professor in internal medicine at the Ohio State University Wexner Medical Center. If we go with the high estimate, that means that nursing home residents account for .46 percent of the population of the United States, yet nursing home residents account for approximately 43.4 percent of coronavirus deaths (or 51.6 percent if you double New York’s count to compensate for the exclusion of nursing home resident hospital deaths, per Kerpen’s suggestion). That’s a staggering statistic.

So, what does this tell us? For starters, it tells us that states need to do a better job protecting the most vulnerable populations. Professor Mark Woolhouse, an expert in infectious diseases in Scotland, led a study that determined current lockdown restrictions could be easily lifted as long the most vulnerable populations are left protected. According to Woolhouse, for the non-vulnerable population, the coronavirus is comparable to a “nasty flu.”

“If it wasn’t for the fact that it presents such a high risk of severe disease in vulnerable groups, we would never have taken the steps we have and closed down the country. If we can shield the vulnerable really well, there is no reason why we cannot lift many of the restrictions in place for others.”

And from Minnesota, which permits its citizens to row a boat but not to use a motor or buy vegetable seeds or seedlings:

Twenty-six new deaths have been attributed to the virus; the new total is 534. Twenty-five of the 26 new deaths occurred among residents of long-term care facilities; the new total of LTC deaths is 434. They now account for slightly in excess of 81 percent of all deaths attributed to the virus. Of the 26 new decedents, 10 were in their 90’s, 9 in their 80’s, five in their 70’s, and two in their 60’s. The median age of all decedents remains 83.

Why the statewide lockdown?

A few of the meatpacking plants in rural Minnesota have experienced outbreaks of the virus. The biggest may be a pork processing plant in Worthington with 2700 employees. Kevin Roche — he of Healthy Skeptic — wrote me last night to note that an email from a plant employee circulating on Twitter reports all employees have been tested. Results: 1200 tested positive, 90 percent were asymptomatic, 12 were hospitalized, no deaths. Although the situation in Worthington has been a frequent subject of discussion at the daily briefings, for some reason the authorities have not seen fit to announce the good news.

Here in Maine, cumulative COVID stats through yesterday RE:

1,408 cases, 249 of which (18%) have been nursing homes.

198 hospitalized (no breakdown provided)

64 deaths, 30 in nursing homes

And, related, reader Lian Bruce has compiled relevant numbers comparing Connecticut and Maine: