I'm sure this is right and, worse, Biden's failure to pass Build Back Broke has him desperate to throw something to the woke squad, and he'll be picking someone from the far, far left fringe
/Don’t Expect Manchin or Sinema to Save Us From Biden’s SCOTUS Pick
But there’s also this:
That said, it may be a moot point anyway. I’d be willing to bet that some Republican Senators will back Biden’s nominee, namely Susan Collins (R-Maine) and Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) — who have shown a willingness to support Biden’s lower court nominees too.
Also, Republicans have shown to be more open to confirming liberal justices in the past. Six Republicans voted to confirm Elena Kagan, and nine voted to confirm Sonia Sotomayor. Only three Democrats voted to confirm Neil Gorsuch, one for Brett Kavanaugh, and none for Amy Coney Barrett. Republicans may be more united in opposition to radical nominees now. Still, Collins and Murkowski are likely going to support Biden’s pick, so Manchin and Sinema’s votes will not be as consequential regardless.