Moving' on up, or staying put?

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Homeowners with low mortgage rates are balking at the prospect of selling their homes to borrow at much higher rates for their next homes, a development that could limit the supply of houses for sale for years to come.

Housing inventory has risen from record lows earlier this year as more homes sit on the market longer. But the number of newly listed homes in the four weeks ended Sept. 11 fell 19% year-over-year, according to real-estate brokerage Redfin Corp. That is an indication that sellers who don’t need to sell are staying on the sidelines, economists say.

Larry and Corina Lewis of Tarrytown, N.Y., have two children and expect to need a bigger home in the next few years. But their current 30-year mortgage rate is 2.75%.

“The thought of giving this up in order to pay double in interest, that’s a nauseating thought for me,” Mr. Lewis said. Even if the average mortgage rate falls from its current level, he said, “I still don’t see it ever getting quite that low.”

Is that true in Greenwich? I have little to go on except personal, anecdotal evidence, but as I’ve apologized here over the past several months, reporting on real estate news has been slim because less activity to report. Lots of rentals but otherwise, I’m not seeing it.

The GMLS shows 217 active single family listings 706 homes sold from 9/22/21 through last Friday, September 20th. What I can’t lay my hands on is data on the number of active listings a year ago, so I don’t know what sort of drop in inventory we’ve experienced. But judging from what I’m seeing come across the wire, there’s not much, especially in Riverside and Old Greenwich where almost every reasonably priced house in decent condition is going to contract in mere days, often via multiple bids.

So the good news is that there are still buyers out there, and as long as NYC continues to drive families our way we’ll probably do okay, but sooner, not later, I’d expect more would-be buyers from other areas of the country to stay put, for now, and owners of existing homes here to decide to wait for interest rates to drop again or, more likely, adjust to the idea 7% mortgages, bite the bullet, and move, up or down.