Scare headlines

I’m up here in Maine because there’s no point going back to the NYC area while everything is shut down, so I’m following the local coverage of Kung Flu with more interest than I otherwise would. If the coverage here is typical of what’s going on in the rest of the country, it’s no wonder we’re in such a panic. Here’s what’s on Portland Press Herald’s front page today:

[Bold emphasis added]

The spike, which was the largest daily increase in cases to date, was largely because facility-wide testing at the Augusta Center for Health and Rehabilitation revealed 55 residents or staff members had contracted COVID-19.

….

[ Dr. Nirav Shah, director of the Maine CDC] expressed concern about the outbreaks on Monday, but stressed that the spike is a result of his agency’s recommendation of aggressive, universal testing of both residents and staff at long-term care facilities as soon as the first COVID-19 case emerges.

“One of the things we know in public health is that when you look for things, you find them and, indeed, much of what we are seeing here is just that,” Shah said. “The fact that there are high numbers of individuals at these facilities does not mean that there are high numbers of critically ill individuals. In fact, many if not most of the positive results that we have seen in these facilities have been in individuals who do not have symptoms.”

Burying the lede

So, the “surge” in new cases is attributable to wider testing, and those cases that are new are centered in nursing homes, exactly as one would expect. There have been 698 COVID cases reported so far among Maine’s population of 1.3 million — 0.000537. While it’s guessed that there have been many more infections, those were apparently mild enough that they weren’t reported, let alone require hospitalization. Of the reported cases, 19 people have died. Half of the state’s ICU beds lie empty, with just 19 COVID patients in the others. Nine patients are on ventilators. That’s it.

To prolong, but not eradicate this disease, the state has thrown a hundred thousand people out of work, ensured the bankruptcy and probably permanent closing of half the states’ small businesses, and canceled the tourist season, which powers Maine’s economy.

As of Monday, 61 individuals were hospitalized with COVID-19, with 22 of those being cared for in critical care or intensive care units. Nine individuals were on ventilators, indicating the disease had progressed to the point of respiratory failure.

The Maine CDC reported that 273 individuals – nearly 40 percent of all confirmed cases – had recovered and been released from isolation. After accounting for the individuals who had recovered or died, Maine had 406 active cases Monday.

The total number of intensive care unit beds in Maine stood at 314 on Monday, with 158 available, the Maine CDC said. The number of ventilators was 328, with 283 available, plus 234 alternative ventilators.

The CDC also said that there were 22 COVID-19 patients in intensive care units statewide Monday and 39 others who are hospitalized but not in intensive care.

If our media gave the same coverage to influenza — 20,000 deaths this season, so far — with daily counts of hospitalizations, number of patients hospitalized, etc., we’d be in the same panic. And just as unnecessarily.