Once is not enough: the medical "experts" are now prescribing a halt-go-halt-go process for the next couple of years. We won't survive that.

Maybe it’s time to bring in some economists to balance the medical/science types, because curing a disease is futile if the patient dies. And what the public health people are proposing will indeed kill the world.

How long can a nation of 327 million people endure with work and schools closed, lost jobs, and people still dying from a pandemic with no proven treatment?

At least until April 30, President Donald Trump acknowledged on Sunday, backing down from earlier calls to end social distancing measures by Easter. Delaware has a stay-at-home order lasting until May 15. On Monday, Virginia issued one lasting until June 10. Meanwhile, the Imperial College London report from mid-March, which predicted 2.2 million deaths in the US without social distancing measures — a finding that triggered lockdowns on both sides of the Atlantic Ocean — projected a first round of shutdowns could last five months.

The university’s modelers suggested that, after a couple of months off, social distancing might then need to pick up again on Sept. 20.

“We are probably looking at five- to six-month phases, done in different ways and times in different places across the country,” pandemic expert Irwin Redlener of the Columbia University's Mailman School of Public Health told BuzzFeed News. “Putting people through that process will be extremely difficult.”

I get it: slowing and spreading out the infection rate of the population will prevent hospitals from being overwhelmed by sick people, and eventually, everyone will either have gotten and recovered, or died, and we can resume flying about the country. Great; fine, but what will be left to fly to (and who will be able to afford to) if we’ve continued this shutdown for two years? Businesses can’t just reopen their doors, restock their inventory and then shut down again after three months; just as a for instance, where is that inventory to come from if manufacturers have gone bankrupt and shut down themselves?

The trouble with allowing medicos the sole voice in this catastrophe is that they admit they know no more than the rest of us; how can there be an end game when no one even knows what the game is?

Example: will the flu subside as the weather warms?

Seasonality remains a mystery, said Osterholm, suggesting that as long as 40% to 80% of the public still has no immunity to the new virus, it will likely readily spread regardless. “At this point, I don’t have a clue what is going to happen to the virus,” he said.

Which is my point: no one knows. What we do know is that hiding from the flu doesn’t create immunity to the virus — we’re all going to get it, eventually. The question is do we hope that some of the theories, such as undetected infections have come and gone, leaving a large percentage of the population already immune, and go for it, getting it all over with in one, horrendous crash, or drag this on for two, three, four years, while simultaneously dragging the economy to ruin?

If the choice is between the big bang and a years-long cycle of shutting the economy on-and-off, then I’d go with the latter. Let’s hope there’s a third option.

UPDATE: It seems that this same argument was advanced by Tucker Carlson earlier. It’s discouraging to see anyone on Fox attempting to bring some sanity to the discussion, because the more Fox (or Trump) supports a course of action, the more the fiercely the Left will fight against it.

UPDATE II: Powerline has a nice roundup of other commentators who are lookimg askance at the current approach.

sample:

A voice of realism is UCLA’s Joseph A. Ladapo, perhaps because he’s a medical doctor who has been treating Covid-19 patients and has permission to be realistic. In USA Today, he writes that we missed any chance to corral a virus that will spare most of us but kill thousands. The shutdowns if prolonged will only make our situation worse. They will add mass unemployment, poverty and missed schooling to our problems.

“The epidemiologic models I’ve seen indicate that the shutdowns and school closures will temporarily slow the virus’ spread, but when they’re lifted, we will essentially emerge right back where we started. And, by the way, no matter what, our hospitals will still be overwhelmed.”