A solution in search of a problem?

COVID-19’s disappearing so quickly that vaccine development is jeopardized.

Not Enough COVID-19

… Oxford researchers are now warning of an obstacle in the trial process. As new cases of COVID-19 are declining, they worry the data will not meet the hurdles to prove effectiveness. They are now placing the odds of a successful trial at 50%. Professor Adrian Hill is sounding the alarm:

The stakes could hardly be higher. If proven effective, the ZD1222 vaccine would allow people to leave their homes and go back to work, and the shattered global economy to rebuild. But Hill, director of the university’s Jenner Institute, revealed his team now faced a major problem, throwing the September deadline into doubt.

“It is a race, yes. But it’s not a race against the other guys. It’s a race against the virus disappearing, and against time,” he said. “At the moment, there’s a 50 per cent chance that we get no result at all.”

The professor went on to explain that the trial has recruited 10,000 individuals to take the vaccine. He would expect fewer than 50 to contract COVID-19. If fewer than 20 do, Hill says the results will be useless, putting the trial in jeopardy.

“We’re in the bizarre position of wanting COVID to stay, at least for a little while. But cases are declining.”

Bizarre no doubt, given we were all assured cases would explode as lockdown restrictions were lifted.

The Vaccine Conundrum

This also places residents in some areas of the United States in quite a conundrum. State and local leaders like Mayor Eric Garcetti of Los Angeles and Governor Tom Wolfe of Pennsylvania have said that their citizens cannot return to normal until we have an effective vaccine.

However, according to Professor Hill, we can’t have an effective vaccine unless the virus is spreading at a rate sufficient to infect a statistically significant portion of the test group. It appears we have slowed the spread to such a degree it may deprive us of the vaccine so many are desperately relying on.

Protect the Vulnerable

This is just another reason to loosen lockdown restrictions. In order to test vaccines, the virus needs to circulate. In order for it to circulate people need to be moving around in public. Clearly to get to this point quickly and safely a few things need to happen. This approach should be bolstered by the CDC’s mortality data revisions.

As our health experts have often said, we need to learn to do two things at once. The data shows COVID-19 is most severe in the elderly with pre-existing conditions. Data shows the experience in nursing homes and assisted living facilities is particularly devastating. The public health system must figure out how to scrupulously protect these residents through aggressive sentinel testing and protective measures.