It's J.D. Vance, and that's fine with me, though I'm sure there'll be howls on the right. (UPDATED)

Trump’s announced his pick.

Vance’s Hillbilly Elegy showed a compassionate understanding of the drug problem that’s trapped half the population of rural America (up in Maine, as well as his old Kentucky home) balanced by admiration for the other half who, like Vance himself, persevere. The book’s a fine read, and before his critics tear him apart, they should read it (and I don’t mean viewing the Ron Howard TV adaptation, that missed the whole point of the book).

Just read this after writing the above, and, remembering that the mark of a genius is a man who agrees with you, here’s HOTAIR’s managing editor and resident genius, Ed Morrissey, weighing on on the pick:

At 39, Vance will be one of the youngest candidates ever on a national presidential ticket. He only has one partial term as Senator under his belt; his direct opponent, Kamala Harris, had only one incomplete term in the Senate as well when Joe Biden picked her as a running mate. Vance authored Hillbilly Elegy, a book that resonated among Trump's conservo-populist base, and has been a tireless ally for the former and likely future president.

Vance will certainly provide youth and vigor on the campaign trail. He will also be the only veteran on either ticket, and a combat veteran at that in Iraq as a military journalist. He has proven himself articulate on the stump as well as on the page, and has been a promising bench member since joining the Senate less than two years ago. 

The surprising non-surprise comes from the events of the last couple of days, and perhaps since the debate. Trump had already signaled that his strategy was shifting to woo people outside the tent rather than just a base turnout strategy after Biden bombed so badly less than three weeks ago. The question was whether that strategic shift would also impact his selection of running mate, choosing someone who could broaden the appeal rather than excite the base.

Now we have our answer, and a good look at what Trump plans to do. He has already told Salena Zito that he threw out his red-meat acceptance speech for Thursday in favor of a more positive, conciliatory speech to promote unity. We can expect that to continue past the convention too, especially since Biden seems incapable of meeting the moment effectively. 

By choosing Vance as his running mate, though, Trump can keep his base happy and fired up. Plus, it's been clear since Trump's acrimonious split with Mike Pence that he would almost certainly not use the pick to elevate the establishment faction of the GOP again. He wants a partner he can trust, plus someone who can carry on the MAGA agenda and base in case he can't finish the term, and/or into the future. This allows Trump to expand his appeal rather than changing his entire approach. And he can also ask Vance to do some of the rhetorical heavy lifting on the MAGA agenda with certified credibility while Trump himself focuses on conciliation and national leadership.

That's a smart strategy. It's not the only smart strategy that was available to Trump, but it's a rational choice, and not one likely to get much second-guessing this week.